The 2020 Second Quarter Numbers are In!
The number of home sales on the eastside are down more than 30% and appreciation has slowed. Can sellers continue to wait to sell their homes? Are we on the verge of a price correction? I have been keeping track of the quarterly eastside real estate market numbers since 2012. It has been amazing, watching the journey as we recovered from the Great recession. Where are we headed now?
As we all know, 2007, 2008 and 2009 were quite a shock to homeowners across the world. Millions lost their homes. There were also those that made strategic financial decisions to let go of properties, take the credit hit, recover, and reinvest in properties at their recession prices. It is always about numbers, strategies, and a lot of luck.
In the greater Seattle area, we have been blessed with a great recovery and on the most part long lasting price retention.
There are a few indicators that seem to be historically constant on the Eastside.
- First quarter is always the lowest volume of sales.
- Second quarter is usually the highest volume and always the highest SOLD prices.
- Third quarter is usually close to the volume of the second and a settling in SOLD price.
- Fourth quarter slows in volume and SOLD prices slip a bit more.
I am not going to go into the reasons and theories in this blog. Every real estate agent should know this information and pass it on to their clients. It just does not seem to matter what is going on in the world or local economies, these indicators do seem to be a closely followed constant.
Now that the second quarter is over, I ran the reports and recorded the numbers. You can see 2019 and 2020. In the spread sheet I have highlighted in yellow the “Fun Facts”.
- %/Tot: This is the percentage of the total SOLD market in that price range. You can see that the percentages in the price points are continuing to slowly creep up. More than a third of the sales are between 1M and 2M.
- Total Column: This is the total number of SOLD properties in a quarter. We are down 33% from last year.
- Median Price and Quarterly Increase: Currently we have a 3.56 % increase. This number dropped 25% in the quarter.
Keep in mind that his information is for the Seattle’s Eastside. Contact me for information about your neighborhood. It is important to have realistic expectations before you list. Sometimes this information indicates sneaking in a higher list price
Here are some other important statistic facts for you:
- Active properties vs SOLD property numbers: they reported 329 active properties and 314 SOLD in the past 30 days. Good for Sellers.
- Months of Inventory: We only have .54 months of inventory for properties prices between $500,000 and 1M. Months of Inventory is an indicator of the mood of the market. The low number we currently have is good for a Seller. We would just like to see 2 months! That would create more buyer excitement.
- Days on the Market: Currently the median days on the market to get a buyer signed up is about 7. Again, good for Sellers.
- Percent of List Price: Sellers are getting 100% or more of the list price. They are being realistic with the list price knowing that the market will always make the price correction up if there is one.
- Expired and Cancelled Properties: There are listing agents overpricing properties and not planning for price adjustments. I blame the agents not the sellers. Just a note, buyers are not paying stupid money for homes in this market. Sellers are wasting their time and agents their money and time.
We should address COVID-19. I hope that all is OK with you, your family, and friends. Hopefully, we all know that this is serious. It is affecting the health and economies of the world. Unfortunately, there are no concrete answers for the resolve of the virus and quite a bit is conflicting information. Be safe, be smart and be respectful of others.
COVID-19, in my opinion, the reason that the sales are down 33%. The economy was rocking, and we were set for a robust Summer. Sellers don’t know what to do. There is such low inventory, where are they to move? Your agent should be able to show you viable solutions for timing and relocation issues. Also, sellers have the thought that the market is down, and they just might wait. The market isn’t down and out, it certainly has slowed, and because of COVID-19, it could be a while before it corrects. When? Who knows! Do your research, decide on a direction, follow my Top Dollar system and bring on good luck!
I am an experience as a full-time agent on the eastside. I been through all the ups and downs in the market for the past 30 years and have helped sellers make through it all. Feel free to contact me [email protected] if you have any questions about the market, these numbers or the value of your home. You can also go to my website REX2020.com to get information on my “Net Top Dollar” market system. Tom Perry, Realty Executives Brio LLC, Bellevue Washington